Updated Tue Nov 3, 4:52 PM ET · sample site
NFL picks
Player hit rates
Each player's market alt line vs. their real game logs this season (80%+ hit rate shown; highest qualifying rung per stat). Dots = last games, oldest → newest. Game logs as of 2026-11-03; sample = games played.
4 of 15 games have props posted · number on each tab = 100% lines.
Lines: Polymarket US alt lines
Lines: Polymarket US alt lines
Props not posted yet for CLE@NO (Sun 1:00 PM ET). This tab fills in automatically once lines post.
Props not posted yet for DAL@IND (Sun 1:00 PM ET). This tab fills in automatically once lines post.
Lines: Sportsbook O/U lines (DraftKings/FanDuel)
Props not posted yet for DET@MIA (Sun 1:00 PM ET). This tab fills in automatically once lines post.
Props not posted yet for LAR@WSH (Sun 1:00 PM ET). This tab fills in automatically once lines post.
Props not posted yet for NYG@PHI (Sun 1:00 PM ET). This tab fills in automatically once lines post.
Props not posted yet for NYJ@KC (Sun 1:00 PM ET). This tab fills in automatically once lines post.
Props not posted yet for HOU@LAC (Sun 4:05 PM ET). This tab fills in automatically once lines post.
Props not posted yet for ARI@SEA (Sun 4:25 PM ET). This tab fills in automatically once lines post.
Lines: Sportsbook O/U lines (DraftKings/FanDuel)
Props not posted yet for LV@SF (Sun 4:25 PM ET). This tab fills in automatically once lines post.
Props not posted yet for TB@CHI (Sun 8:20 PM ET). This tab fills in automatically once lines post.
Props not posted yet for BUF@MIN (Mon 8:15 PM ET). This tab fills in automatically once lines post.
NFL / CFB sides & totals
| Game | Pick | Price | Model / implied | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No rated NFL/CFB plays published today. Upcoming board below (market prices, not picks). | ||||
| JAX@BAL | SPR JAX -5.5 | 66¢ | implied 65.2% | — |
| JAX@BAL | SPR JAX -6.5 | 63¢ | implied 62.7% | — |
| JAX@BAL | TOT OVER 39.5 | 60¢ | implied 59.8% | — |
| JAX@BAL | SPR JAX -7.5 | 55¢ | implied 54.2% | — |
| JAX@BAL | TOT OVER 41.5 | 54¢ | implied 52.5% | — |
| JAX@BAL | SPR JAX -8.5 | 52¢ | implied 51.5% | — |
Anytime TD · JAX@BAL Thu 11-05 08:15 PM ET
Red-zone usage × defense vs. position. Model is new and not yet backtested.
| Player | Price | Model | Edge | Conf. | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers JAX WR | 23¢ | 29.7% | +6.7 | 3/5 | 7 RZ tgts, 0 RZ carries, 2 TDs; opp allows 0.75 TD/g to WR (lg 0.89) |
| Brian Thomas Jr. JAX WR | 15¢ | 21.3% | +6.3 | 4/5 | 4 RZ tgts, 0 RZ carries, 2 TDs; opp allows 0.75 TD/g to WR (lg 0.89) |
| Nate Boerkircher JAX TE | 14¢ | 18.2% | +4.2 | 3/5 | 2 RZ tgts, 0 RZ carries, 2 TDs; opp allows 0.75 TD/g to TE (lg 0.51) |
| Josh Cuevas BAL TE | 6¢ | 8.3% | +2.3 | 3/5 | 2 RZ tgts, 0 RZ carries, 1 TDs; opp allows 0.57 TD/g to TE (lg 0.51) |
| Fade: Derrick Henry BAL RB | 51¢ | 45.7% | -5.3 | — | Priced above model |
| Fade: Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX RB | 44¢ | 34.2% | -9.8 | — | Priced above model |
| Fade: Parker Washington JAX WR | 41¢ | 31.1% | -9.9 | — | Priced above model |
Prop parlays · JAX@BAL Thu 11-05 08:15 PM ET
Alt lines each player has cleared in (nearly) every game. Parlay price is an estimate from multiplying leg asks.
NFL EPA ranks
| # | Team | Off EPA/play | Def EPA/play | Net | Net L5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | +0.161 | -0.099 | +0.260 | +0.294 |
| 2 | SF | +0.177 | -0.043 | +0.220 | +0.143 |
| 3 | KC | +0.126 | -0.034 | +0.160 | +0.115 |
| 4 | LA | +0.046 | -0.103 | +0.149 | +0.188 |
| 5 | CIN | +0.115 | -0.009 | +0.124 | +0.099 |
| 6 | BUF | +0.173 | +0.063 | +0.110 | +0.079 |
| 7 | CHI | +0.063 | -0.024 | +0.087 | +0.038 |
| 8 | GB | +0.005 | -0.069 | +0.073 | +0.225 |
| 9 | MIN | -0.096 | -0.169 | +0.073 | +0.064 |
| 10 | TB | -0.094 | -0.158 | +0.064 | +0.164 |
| 11 | NE | +0.064 | +0.009 | +0.055 | +0.148 |
| 12 | PIT | -0.027 | -0.074 | +0.047 | +0.150 |
| 13 | SEA | -0.054 | -0.087 | +0.033 | -0.066 |
| 14 | NYJ | +0.044 | +0.023 | +0.021 | -0.005 |
| 15 | BAL | +0.023 | +0.013 | +0.009 | -0.083 |
| 16 | DET | +0.113 | +0.110 | +0.003 | +0.035 |
| 17 | CAR | +0.031 | +0.029 | +0.003 | -0.066 |
| 18 | NYG | +0.013 | +0.011 | +0.002 | +0.093 |
| 19 | DEN | -0.022 | -0.023 | +0.002 | +0.061 |
| 20 | HOU | +0.027 | +0.031 | -0.004 | +0.069 |
| 21 | DAL | +0.091 | +0.126 | -0.035 | -0.040 |
| 22 | WAS | -0.009 | +0.028 | -0.037 | -0.032 |
| 23 | ATL | -0.095 | -0.035 | -0.060 | -0.031 |
| 24 | LV | +0.017 | +0.078 | -0.061 | -0.200 |
| 25 | CLE | -0.079 | -0.017 | -0.062 | -0.063 |
| 26 | ARI | -0.022 | +0.073 | -0.095 | -0.103 |
| 27 | NO | -0.036 | +0.075 | -0.112 | -0.162 |
| 28 | TEN | -0.088 | +0.069 | -0.158 | -0.190 |
| 29 | MIA | -0.045 | +0.131 | -0.176 | -0.136 |
| 30 | IND | -0.115 | +0.065 | -0.180 | -0.136 |
| 31 | LAC | -0.256 | -0.040 | -0.215 | -0.182 |
| 32 | PHI | -0.127 | +0.102 | -0.229 | -0.288 |